Fire Danger Rises Across Tucson As Hot Fourth Of July Weekend Looms

TUCSON, AZ — Gusty winds and dry air are keeping fire danger elevated across the Tucson area through Tuesday, and forecasters say the Fourth of July weekend is shaping up hotter than normal.

The National Weather Service in Tucson said southwest winds will stay breezy through Tuesday, creating critical fire weather conditions in parts of the area. Forecasters described the week as dry overall, with highs starting near normal before climbing to several degrees above normal by the holiday weekend.

An upper-level trough over the western United States is driving the breezy conditions early in the week, forecasters said, and that pattern will keep fire weather concerns elevated today and Tuesday.

Highs both days are expected to run at or slightly below normal as June ends.

The fire weather forecast calls for southwest winds of 12 to 22 mph at 20 feet, with gusts up to 30 mph possible both afternoons. Minimum relative humidity is expected to stay in the 10 to 20 percent range through much of the week, running a bit higher near the international border.

Winds should ease by the middle of next week, officials said.

Later in the week, some moisture may creep back into the atmosphere, mainly at the mid-levels, forecasters said. That could bring afternoon cloud buildup Friday into the holiday weekend. Even so, minimum humidity is expected to stay mostly below 15 percent for now.

Looking further out, the weather service said the western trough should weaken by midweek as subtropical high pressure builds in from the south and spreads across the region heading into the holiday.

Forecasters also pointed to a chance that a favorable monsoon flow pattern could develop sometime next week, likely after July 7. The 8-to-14-day outlook gives July 6 through July 12 a slight lean toward above-normal precipitation, with a 33 to 37 percent chance.

For now, the main concerns remain gusty afternoon winds, low humidity and a warmup heading into the Fourth.