'Sharky Summer' Predicted For CA Beaches: 'A Perfect Storm'

LONG BEACH, CA —California beachgoers could be in for a "sharky summer."

Warmer ocean temperatures, an ongoing marine heat wave and changing nursery habitat are creating conditions similar to 2015, when juvenile great white shark activity surged along the California coast, Chris Lowe, director of Cal State Long Beach’s Shark Lab, told Patch.

"It almost looked like the white shark population exploded overnight," Lowe recalled.

The warning is not just about sharks. Stingrays are also likely to be something to watch this summer, Lowe said, because the same warm-water conditions that can draw young white sharks closer into California's waters can also support the stingray populations they feed on.

“This is becoming a perfect storm,” Lowe said. "This is what we think is going to make SoCal the white shark Mecca this summer."

Sharks Pushed North

The Shark Lab’s forecast is based on nearly 25 years of monitoring sharks and stingrays, including tagging and tracking hundreds of white sharks. Lowe said the last time ocean conditions looked this similar was around 2015, when a marine heat wave known as “the Blob” combined with a strong El Niño.

At the time, water off Baja California became too warm for baby white sharks, Lowe said. Temperatures around 82 degrees appeared to act as a tipping point, pushing young sharks north into California waters.

Researchers are already seeing signs of a similar pattern this year. Ocean temperatures off California have been unusually warm for this time of year, and the Shark Lab began seeing baby white sharks in February — earlier than the April timing researchers would normally expect, Lowe said.

By July and August, when nearshore waters typically peak in temperature, more sharks could move north or settle into temporary nursery areas along the coast.

Shifting Hot Spots

Exactly where they will gather is harder to predict.

Over the last decade, the Shark Lab has identified several Southern California areas that have hosted juvenile white shark aggregations, including parts of Santa Barbara and Carpinteria, Santa Monica Bay, Will Rogers State Beach, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Long Beach Harbor near Belmont Shore, Dana Point, San Clemente, Torrey Pines, Del Mar and Coronado.

But those hot spots can shift. Lowe said juvenile white sharks may use one area for weeks, months or even years before moving on, often after eating down the local supply of stingrays and small sharks.

That makes this summer difficult to map in advance.

Off Hermosa Beach in May, researchers saw about 20 baby white sharks between the Hermosa Beach and Redondo Beach piers and tagged six of them, Lowe said. Two weeks later, they were gone. Some appear to have moved south, others north, and researchers are still watching to see where the next major hot spot forms.

“Right now, animals are shuffling around trying to decide where is the best spot,” Lowe said.

NorCal Waters Welcome Sharks

The changes are not limited to Southern California.

In 2015, Lowe said researchers saw baby white sharks in Monterey Bay for the first time. Juvenile white sharks generally have a lower temperature limit of about 60 degrees, and Monterey Bay’s spring waters have historically been too cold, often in the mid- to upper 50s.

But waters off Santa Cruz warmed to nearly 70 degrees in 2015, Lowe said. Since then, researchers have documented a nursery aggregation in the Monterey Bay area.

Lowe said the pattern reflects a broader shift: California’s coastal waters have been warming over the past 30 years, making parts of Northern California increasingly viable as nursery habitat for young white sharks.

Close Encounters

The presence of more sharks near shore does not necessarily mean the ocean is becoming more dangerous, Lowe said.

The Shark Lab’s drone research has repeatedly found juvenile white sharks swimming close to surfers and swimmers without biting them. During three years of monthly drone surveys at 26 Southern California beaches, researchers found that at two nursery sites, sharks were within about 60 feet of a person on 97 percent of survey days, Lowe said.

No one was bitten during those surveys.

The sharks often appear to notice swimmers or surfers, move closer and then lose interest, Lowe said. He believes juvenile white sharks can distinguish people from prey because humans do not smell, sound or move like the animals they eat.

The greater concern, he said, is people harassing sharks or assuming every close encounter is a threat.

With stingray populations expected to grow, another concern for beachgoers is injuries.

Lifeguards in California treat over 10,000 people annually for such injuries, Lowe said. "What we're projecting is more stingray injuries this year," he said.

The bast majority of injuries are to swimmers' feet. Stingrays bury themselves in the sand, which is why beachgoers should "shuffle" their feet while in the water in order to avoid stepping on one, experts say.

The Shark Lab’s ability to keep monitoring those interactions is uncertain. Lowe said state funding that helped create the California beach safety program has run out, and without new funding, the lab may have to stop some monitoring from Monterey to San Diego.

That would come as California beaches are expected to draw heavy crowds in the coming years, including visitors tied to the 2028 Olympics.

For now, Lowe said, the summer outlook is clear even if the exact hot spots are not: warmer water, plenty of stingrays and shifting shark nursery habitat could make California’s coast especially active in the months ahead.