Tropical System To Strengthen In Gulf, Dolly’s Remnants Move Toward FL: NHC

Forecasters are watching two areas of interest in the tropics this week, with Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 forming in the Gulf on Monday morning, as Tropical Storm Dolly's remnants make their way toward Florida waters.

PTC 5, an area of low pressure a little over 100 miles south of Louisiana on Monday, is showing signs of organization and has a 70 percent chance of strengthening over the next two days, the National Hurricane Center said.

“Additional development is expected as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday,” the NHC said.

If it develops, the next named storm of the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season is Edouard.

“PTC #5 has formed. That just means a blob hasn't quite developed into a storm, but the NHC thinks it will and affect a populated area. In this case, looks like rain with a name,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote in a social media post.

In an earlier post, Phillips wrote that the system “is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm as it heads toward Houston tomorrow.”

He expects it to bring 3 to 6 inches of rain to parts of Texas, with the potential for flooding in some areas, on Tuesday.

Tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued later Monday for southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts, NHC forecasters said.

Whether it strengthens or not, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rain to these areas over the next couple of days.

Fox 35 meteorologist Noah Bergren wrote in a social media post that he expects the system to become Edouard as it moves toward Texas.

“Seems more likely than not to me we will see our 5th tropical storm of the 2026 season Monday into Tuesday in the upper Gulf,” he wrote. “At least a tropical depression, good chance at briefly becoming ‘Edouard’ before coming into SE Texas. Mostly a rain maker with some wind. Maybe a tornado threat here or there.

Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are producing disorganized shows and thunderstorms from near Hispaniola east to the northern Leeward Islands as of Monday morning, NHC said.

The low-pressure area is “getting torn apart by shear,” Phillips said, noting that further development as it moves toward Florida waters “is unlikely.”

There’s just a 10 percent chance of this area strengthening over the next week, the NHC said.

“Redevelopment, if any, would be slow to occur during the next few days as the system encounters generally unfavorable upper-level winds while moving quickly west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph,” the agency said.

Still, experts are keeping an eye on the system.

“If Dolly's remnants survive into the [Florida] Keys and around south Florida, wind shear is much lighter and water well warmer than where it is now. Hence the point of needing to keep tabs with this later this week,” Bergren wrote in a social media post. “There is a scenario, albeit not the most likely outcome at this time, that a tropical system gets going quickly [Thursday to Saturday] around [Florida]. It's also possible the remnants get too strung out by shear Monday and Tuesday and nothing happens.”

Waters ahead of the tropical wave are 5 or more degrees warmer than where it currently is, he added.

“The critical ‘line in the sand’ is going to be what … the remnants look like Tuesday morning on satellite,” Bergren said. “Are they still alive and kicking, or all but fallen apart. That will be key to figuring what may or may not happen later this week.”

Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote in a social media post that he’s “not expecting much from this system due to wind shear and land interaction.”

He added, “A few models are hinting that there could be some development when it reaches the southeastern Gulf in a few days. There are no signs that this will end up producing major issues, but as always, we will watch it!”

Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical depression or storm, the system could bring heavy rains and gusty winds to parts of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days, the NHC said.

See Also:

• Forecasters Continue To Lower Hurricane Season Predictions As Peak Season Nears
• NOAA Lowers 2026 Hurricane Forecast As Peak Season Nears
• 5 Things To Know About The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 'Super El Niño' Could Form In Atlantic: What It Means For FL Hurricane Season
• 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Names: What Storms Will Be Called This Season