Michigan Winter Outlook Released By NOAA

Another new forecast is predicting warmer temperatures with less snowfall across most of Michigan this winter.

The NOAA and National Weather Service released its winter 2026-2027 outlook amid a strengthening El Niño.

"A very strong to historically strong El Niño will influence weather patterns through the winter season," the weather service shared on its Facebook page.

The new weather service and NOAA maps show all of Michigan can expect a 50 to 60 percent chance of warmer than normal temperatures from December through February.

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As for precipitation, forecasters are growing more confident that northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula will see less snowfall this winter.

The map shows some areas, such as around Mackinaw City, could see a 50 percent chance of less than normal snowfall this winter.

The southern part of Michigan, including southeastern Michigan, should see normal amounts of snowfall, according to the map.

The weather service said there have only been six very strong El Niño events, so it is a small sample size for any firm conclusions.

"We're still likely to experience at least a few periods of noteworthy cold weather," the weather service said. The snow cover would play a large role in determining temperatures.

According to weather service data, metro Detroit's average date for the first measurable snow average date is Nov. 16. The first for 1+ inches is Nov. 30 and 3+ inches is Dec. 26.

Forecasters expect light snow flurries mixing with rain in the northern parts of Michigan this weekend. No snowfall has occurred yet this fall for the Detroit area.