Potential Upset Brewing In Southern Minnesota's US House Race

ROCHESTER, MN — Southern Minnesota's congressional race just got a lot more interesting.

For weeks, Republican U.S. Rep. Brad Finstad held a steady lead over DFL challenger Jake Johnson in statistician Nate Silver's polling average for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District. Now, with Election Day less than three weeks away, Johnson has pulled ahead.

The Silver Bulletin average, which weighs each poll by its quality, sample size and recency, now shows Johnson at 45.9 percent and Finstad at 45.3 percent.

As recently as Oct. 3, Finstad led 47.9 percent to 44.9 percent, a 3-point edge that has since evaporated.

The swing came after a new SurveyUSA poll of 565 likely voters, conducted Oct. 4-12, found Johnson leading 46 percent to 44 percent. That survey carries the most weight of any poll in Silver's average.

It is the second straight poll to show Johnson ahead. A Sept. 18-21 survey from GBAO, a Democratic-aligned firm, had him up 47 percent to 46 percent among 500 likely voters.

Earlier in the year, the picture looked very different.

A March 12-14 survey from Republican-aligned Ragnar Research Partners had Finstad up 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent, among 400 likely voters. A Feb. 2-3 poll from Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling showed Finstad ahead 44 percent to 41 percent among 708 registered voters. Neither poll still carries weight in the average.

Johnson's 0.6-point edge is razor thin, and the race remains essentially a toss-up.

The Cook Political Report still rates the race Likely Republican, a rating it moved from Solid Republican in June. Finstad ran ahead of President Donald Trump in 2024 and won reelection by 17 points, according to Cook, and the district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6, meaning it votes about 6 points more Republican than the nation as a whole.

Finstad has represented the district, which stretches across southern Minnesota, since 2022. Johnson, a high school teacher, won the DFL primary in August.

The general election is Nov. 3.