Peggy Flanagan's Senate Lead Collapses As Michele Tafoya Surges Into Dead Heat, KSTP Poll Shows

ST. PAUL, MN — Minnesota's U.S. Senate race has tightened into a dead heat, according to a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll released this week.

The survey shows Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican challenger Michele Tafoya essentially tied, with 12 percent of voters still undecided and 4 percent supporting other candidates.

Flanagan held a 5-point lead in the first post-primary poll last month, a margin that has now evaporated just days before early voting begins in Minnesota.

The shift shows up across several voter groups. Among men, Tafoya expanded her edge from 6 points to 8. Flanagan's advantage with women narrowed from 16 points to 12.

Age groups told a mixed story too: Tafoya pulled within a point of Flanagan among voters 35 to 49 and widened her lead in the 50 to 64 range, while Flanagan cut Tafoya's edge among voters 65 and older to just 2 points.

Geography also shifted. Flanagan picked up a 3 point edge in northeast Minnesota, but her once comfortable 15 point lead in the Twin Cities shrank to just 4 points.

The one clear bright spot for Flanagan was among moderate voters, where her advantage grew to 15 points, though 17% of that group remains undecided.

The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA, an independent research firm, on behalf of KSTP.

It comes as Minnesota's governor's race has tightened as well, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar's lead over Republican Lisa Demuth narrowing from 16 points to 7 over the same period.