New St. A's Poll: Trump Terrible, Ayotte OK, Warmington Woeful

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

The latest St. Anselm College poll shows New Hampshire voters are generally grumpy about politics in general and President Donald Trump in particular. And opposition to the war in Iran isn’t helping.

“War and economic uncertainty tend to hurt the incumbent party. As a result, the political environment continues to deteriorate for New Hampshire Republicans,” said Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque.

At the same time, Granite Staters feel pretty good about Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte and are unimpressed by her potential Democratic opponents. In fact, former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington is viewed favorably by just 44 percent of her own party.

Meanwhile, Republican policies continue to be more popular than the party, especially its “no income tax” stance, which is shared by 71 percent of voters — including a plurality of Democrats.

The Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll of 1,491 New Hampshire registered voters between March 16 and 18 found 58 percent disapprove of the job Trump has done as president, while 42 percent approve.

Those voters also disapprove of the U.S. military action in Iran (40 to 59 percent), trust Democrats more on the economy than Republicans (41-40 percent), and support a Democrat-controlled Congress over the GOP (49-41 percent). That “generic ballot” question is often cited as a bellwether for upcoming election results.

“These polling numbers are brought to you by the ‘Reap What You Sow’ Department,” said veteran GOP consultant Patrick Griffin. “These numbers are indicative of buyer’s remorse on the part of voters who’ve simply had enough.”

Griffin says the common denominator is Trump.

“Donald Trump’s ultimate legacy could be to hand Congress to the Democrats and ultimately make Gavin Newsom the next president. Anybody else tired of winning?”

However, the poll also shows Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte continuing to outpace Trump and hold a lead over her likely challengers.

In 2024, Ayotte received 54 percent of the vote to his 48 percent. In the new poll, she’s +2 with voters (49-47 percent), while he’s -16, a net 18-point swing.

Ayotte is also helped by the weak standing of Warmington, who’s at just 22 approve/24 disapprove, with 53 percent of voters having no opinion. Among self-identified Democrats, Warmington’s “no opinion” number (45 percent) is higher than her approval (44 percent).

That is despite having served as an executive councilor before running unsuccessfully for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2024.

In a theoretical matchup, Ayotte leads Warmington, 46-39 percent.

The other Democrat in the race, Jon Kiper, has even lower name ID and trails Ayotte, 45-30 percent.

And while Trump is undoubtedly a drag on the GOP ticket, former U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu trails U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas by only three points, 46-43 percent. Democrats, who are facing an uphill climb to flip four seats and take control of the U.S. Senate, don’t need a competitive race in a state where they have dominated for more than a decade.

The other major Republican in the race, former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, trails Sununu (49-28 percent) in the primary and Pappas (47-38 percent) in the general.

The poll also measured potential presidential candidates and how they might fare in the 2028 First-in-the-Nation primary.

The Democratic front-runner is former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (29 percent), followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (15 percent) and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10 percent).

Just 6 percent of Granite State Democrats support 2024 nominee and former Vice President Kamala Harris, who won 51 percent of the statewide vote only a year and a half ago.

For Republicans, Vice President JD Vance remains the top choice at 46 percent. Secretary of State Marco Rubio jumped from 9 to 27 percent since November.

“Rubio must now be considered a significant potential challenger to Vance,” said Levesque.

But the biggest number from the poll may be Granite Staters’ rejection of an income tax. Not only is it opposed by 71 percent of all voters, but Democrats also reject it 40-49 percent. And 79 percent of self-identified swing voters oppose it as well.

That has not, however, changed the behavior of State House Democrats, who continue to vote against a ban on a state income tax.

Republicans believe the income tax issue can help them overcome the anti-Trump backlash in New Hampshire, as happened in 2020 when Republicans picked up the state House and Senate, despite Trump losing by eight points at the top of the ticket.

Ayotte supporter Sen. Bill Gannon (R-Sandown) believes the poll shows the Republican governor is on a winning path.

“Kelly Ayotte has spent her career fighting for New Hampshire. Cinde Warmington has spent her career fighting for Purdue Pharma and New England’s most notorious pill mill. The choice is clear, and Granite Staters will reject opioid lobbyist Cinde Warmington this November.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.