Nor'easter Update: What To Know On Long Island

LONG ISLAND, NY — The countdown to the season's first nor'easter on Long Island has begun, with winds beginning to pick up across the region Wednesday.

According to Jim Connolly, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Upton, those winds should continue to pick up Friday and Saturday before tapering off Sunday.

The storm is expected to develop over the Atlantic Ocean and move up the coast Friday into Saturday, with peak winds expected on Friday and through Saturday night.

Highest wind gusts could reach 35 to 50 miles per hour, Connolly said.

Rain is expected but so far, it appears as though that precipitation could stay mainly offshore, with current forecasts predicting less than an inch of rain for Long Island, Connolly said.

However, all that could change depending upon how the storm tracks, closer to Friday, he said.

Long Islanders began to feel the early impacts of a possible nor'easter Wednesday, according to the NWS.

James Tomasini, meteorologist with the NWS office in Upton, said on Tuesday that the storm was still being monitored. "We're still several days out," he said.

However, he said, there was now higher confidence in the potential for "multiple cycles of minor to localized coastal flooding during the high tides, beginning Wednesday afternoon and into the weekend."

Southern Nassau County should be the first to see incidents of minor coastal flooding on Wednesday, Tomasini said, with other parts of Long Island following as the high tide cycles continue toward the weekend.

As far as wind and rain impacts, Tomasini said as of right now, it doesn't appear there will be any flash flooding due to rainfall; it's unclear if there will be a need for a wind advisory until closer to Friday and Saturday, he said.

How severely a possible nor'easter will slam the area will be determined by how the storm tracks, he agreed.

But, Tomasini added, no matter who that evolves, Long Island is expected to see dangerous rip currents along the beaches as well as high surf and beach erosion.

A high rip current risk is now in effect through Thursday afternoon, the NWS said.

Even if the coastal storm ends up staying to the east of the area, Long Island will "still see several days of prolonged, gusty conditions out of the northeast and coastal impacts. If it trends closer, we will end up with more rain and higher winds," he said.

Meanwhile, soggy skies are in store this week for New York, with the potential nor'easter threatening to bring high winds, flooding and more, according to the latest forecast.

Jay Engle, meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told Patch on Monday that while there "is a lot of uncertainty" about the specifics, "we know that there is going to be a storm intensifying off the coast Thursday night or Friday."

That's when the storm will be in the developmental stage and, at this point, it's uncertain how far off the shore the storm will be, or whether it can be pulled back closer to the coast, Engle said.

"There's an another piece of upper level energy that may try to interact with the storm and help pull it back closer to the coast, but there is uncertainty as to the precise timing or how close it will get to the coast," he said.

What could be a nor'easter is expected to slam Long Island late Friday into Saturday, Engle said. "We're not sure what those impacts are going to, but the greatest chance" for those impacts appear to be on the East End, he said.

However, Engle said, those models may shift or change.

Should the nor'easter materialize, Long Island could see 1 to 3 inches of rain and winds of 40 and up to 60 miles per hour, "if the storm comes together," he said, adding that at this point, there is no additional context to provide.

Below-normal temperatures and rain will linger through the week, National Weather Service forecasters said.

Here's a look at the weather ahead, according to the National Weather Service.

Wednesday afternoon

Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 25 mph.

Wednesday night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 22 mph.

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Breezy, with a northeast wind 22 to 24 mph.

Thursday night

A 30 percent chance of showers after 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Breezy, with a northeast wind 21 to 23 mph.

Friday

A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.

Friday night

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 55. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.

Saturday night

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 55. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.

Sunday

Showers likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

Sunday night

Showers likely, mainly before 8 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.