What To Know For Red October: Phillies Playoff Picture Takes Shape In Final Week

PHILADELPHIA, PA — There are six games left in the regular season and the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves on the cusp of Red October for the fifth consecutive year.

It was a rougher and rockier road than the past few seasons. The Phillies put themselves in a deep hole in April, starting off 9-19 before manager Rob Thomson, who had helmed two consecutive division titles, was fired.

Under interim manager Don Mattingly the Phillies have been reborn. Though there have been a few fits and starts in recent months, the Phillies have shown they clearly have the potential to make another deep championship run if they're on their game.

Their playoff spot is all but guaranteed. But the seeding remains up in the air, as the three Wild Card teams, the Cubs (86-69), the Padres (86-69), and the Phillies (85-70) are separated by just one game.

How this final week shakes out will determine who the Phillies play in the best of three Wild Card series, and where that series is hosted. All three games in the Wild Card are hosted by the team with the higher seed.

Current playoff picture

In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers are near locks to get the Wild Card round bye.

The Atlanta Braves, as the third seed, will host one of the three Wild Card teams. The other two Wild Cards will play each other.

Chicago holds the tiebreaker over the Phillies, so the Phils need to beat them by a game to take the lead. Which means the Phillies need to gain two games on the Cubs in the final six games. That is an unlikely but not impossible outcome. Phillies would need to go 4-2 if the Cubs went 2-4, or 5-1 if the Cubs went 3-3. This is the only way for the Phillies to host the opening round at Citizens Bank Park, against either San Diego or Chicago.

The Phillies hold the tiebreaker with San Diego, so if they finish with the same record, they take the 5th seed away from San Diego. That is a very possible outcome. But it would mean traveling to Chicago, the 4th seed, for the Wild Card series.

It's also very possible that Philly, Chicago, and San Diego finish with the same record, and the Phillies remain the 6th seed. In that case, they would play the Braves in the Wild Card round in Atlanta. It would be their third playoff meeting with Atlanta in the last five years.

Remaining schedule

The Cubs have three games with a middling Marlins squad and then three with a very good Red Sox team. But Boston's postseason spot is fairly set in stone, so they may rest their starters against Chicago in those games.

The Padres have three with the Dodgers, who most certainly resting their starters where they can, and then three with the Diamondbacks, a decent team who is not yet mathematically eliminated and will be highly motivated to beat them.

The Phillies on paper have the hardest schedule against two of baseball's best teams: the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays. But both of those teams have first round byes in the bag, and will almost certainly be resting key pitchers and starters. Ironically, this seemingly harder schedule could play to Philly's advantage.

Ranking all the possible outcomes

Best outcome: home series against the Cubs

Regardless of the outcome of the past few postseasons, there is no doubt the Phillies possess a significant home field advantage. Listen to Cubs fans talk with dread about coming to the Bank for a three game series.

The Cubs are probably the best matchup for the Phillies on paper. While they possess a potent offense, the Phillies have arguably the best pitching in baseball. And the Cubs well documented bullpen struggles mean the Phillies stand a good chance of putting up enough runs to buffer whatever Chicago does manage to do.

Next best: home vs. Padres

The Padres are scorching hot lately, putting together the kind of September that has in the past led to surprise World Series runs. Their trajectory this year is not that dissimilar from the fated St. Louis Cardinals of 2011.

But the Phillies do have their number, both historically and this season, and odds favor the Phillies in a home series.

Third outcome: away in Chicago

The Cubs have faltered to a 9-9 record this month and have demonstrated that their pitching makes them a very flawed team. An away series is not ideal, and anything is possible in a three game series, but the Cubs remain the best matchup for Philly on paper.

Less ideal but most exciting: away in Atlanta

The Phillies were huge underdogs against all-time great Braves teams in the NLDS in both 2022 and 2023. And in both years, the result was the same: a 1-1 split in Atlanta followed by the Phillies winning two straight games at home.

It would likely be a bloodbath against one of their greatest rivals, but the Phillies were one good pitch away from winning both of their last two series with Atlanta. They are matched up better than their abysmal season series record suggests. But momentum and the well documented dominance of Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler still gives the Phillies a very good chance at breaking Atlanta's heart.

Least favorable outcome: away in San Diego

The Padres have been the best team in baseball since Aug. 1, and have gone 14-4 in September. Like the Phillies, they've always had the superstar talent to make a deep postseason run, and they've just needed it all to come together at the right moment. This could be San Diego's year, and the Phillies would be better served playing the far more unfriendly environs of Truist Field or Wrigley rather than MLB's hottest team, even if it is a city they've dominated in recent history.

What to watch in the coming days

The Phillies have one huge storyline this week: can they line up their starting rotation in the season's final days so that Sanchez, Wheeler, and Aaron Nola are fully rested for games one and two?

The season ends on Sunday, Sept. 27. The Wild Card teams have one off day on Sept. 28 before the Wild Card begins on Tuesday, Sept. 29. That means the latest that Sanchez could pitch and be on full rest for game one would be this Thursday. And for Wheeler to start game two on Wednesday, the latest he could pitch would be this Friday.

Wheeler will throw tonight (Sept. 22) against Milwaukee. Sanchez's spot in the rotation comes up Thursday, the final game against Milwaukee.

Playoff pitching plans

Indications are that the Phillies will seek to use fewer pitchers in the playoffs, to limit exposure to their bullpen. Assuming things line up well this week, it Sanchez will likely starte game one and Wheeler will likely start game two.

Expect the Phillies third ace, Jesus Luzardo, who hasn't thrown a full game in weeks, to only be ramped up for relief appearances. He will bridge the gap between Sanchez or Wheeler and Jhoan Duran, at least in one of the first two games if not both.

While all hands would be available in a potential elimination game, Aaron Nola probably lines up as a potential game three starter. Andrew Painter could help with bulk innings after Nola, depending on Luzardo's rest.

Given the recent injury to Jonathan Bowlan, it's entirely possible the Phillies cover all innings in the Wild Card series with their five starters and Duran. The only other pitcher likely to see important work is rookie Alex McFarlane.

Odds and playoff schedule

The Phillies have the ninth best odds to win the World Series, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, at plus 1600. They're closely bunched with several other teams, as fifth overall is at plus 1300. Los Angeles remains the overwhelming favorites for a three-peat, at plus 220.

The Wild Card series runs from Sept. 29 to Oct. 1. The NLDS is Oct. 3 through Oct. 9, the NLCS is Oct. 11 through Oct. 19, and the World Series is Oct. 23 through Oct. 31.