Brewers' World Series Odds Soar After Game 1 Win Over Dodgers, Analytics Show

MILWAUKEE, WI — One win over the Los Angeles Dodgers was all it took to send the Milwaukee Brewers' World Series chances soaring, according to one of baseball's most widely followed analytics sites.

The Brewers beat the Dodgers 2-1 in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Sunday night at American Family Field, taking a 1-0 lead in the best-of-seven series.

FanGraphs, which updates its playoff projections daily, now gives Milwaukee a 26.5 percent chance to win the World Series.

Before Sunday's game, the site had the Brewers at 16.8 percent.

The Brewers' chances of winning the National League pennant climbed even more sharply, from 29.7 percent before Game 1 to 46.6 percent as of Monday morning.

The Dodgers took the biggest hit. Los Angeles, the two-time defending World Series champion, had a 53.4 percent chance to win another title heading into the series, according to FanGraphs. That number has since dropped to 40.1 percent.

Still Chasing The Dodgers

Despite the jump, the Brewers are not yet the favorite. FanGraphs still gives the Dodgers the edge to win the pennant, about 53 percent to 47 percent.

But the Brewers now have the second-best World Series odds of the four teams left, ahead of both American League contenders.

FanGraphs gives the Tampa Bay Rays a 17.3 percent chance and the Cleveland Guardians a 16.1 percent chance.

History The Brewers Are Trying To Rewrite

The Brewers finished the regular season with a franchise-record 103 wins and the top seed in the National League. They beat the San Diego Padres in four games in the Division Series to reach the NLCS.

The Dodgers, who won 100 games, have beaten Milwaukee in all three of the teams' previous postseason meetings: the 2018 NLCS, the 2020 Wild Card Series and the 2025 NLCS. Last year, Los Angeles swept the Brewers in four games, outscoring them 15-4.

The Brewers are trying to reach the World Series for the first time since 1982. The franchise has never won a World Series or an NLCS.

NLCS Schedule

All times Central. Games air on FOX or FS1.

Game 2: Monday, Oct. 12, 4 p.m., at Milwaukee
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 14, 7 p.m., at Los Angeles
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 15, 8 p.m., at Los Angeles
Game 5 (if necessary): Friday, Oct. 16, 8 p.m., at Los Angeles
Game 6 (if necessary): Sunday, Oct. 18, 7 p.m., at Milwaukee
Game 7 (if necessary): Monday, Oct. 19, 7 p.m., at Milwaukee

A win Monday would send the Brewers to Los Angeles with a 2-0 series lead.