Major LA Quake Could Spark Fires 10X Worse Than Palisades, Eaton: Seismologist

LOS ANGELES, CA — Los Angeles County is generally well-prepared to respond to a major earthquake, but a powerful temblor would still cause severe damage and residents should take steps now to prepare for a disaster, experts told the Board of Supervisors Tuesday.

Seismologist Lucy Jones and a variety of county officials involved in emergency preparedness and response briefed the board on the readiness of county employees and facilities, gaps in preparedness and plans to maintain services following a major earthquake.

Jones noted that Los Angeles is obviously at high risk for earthquakes and said fires following a major temblor could significantly increase the destruction. She said post-earthquake fires could destroy "10 times the number of buildings as burned in the combined Palisades and Eaton fires."

"And that will be on top of the earthquake that we have, so as we get ready for it, we've got to think about more than just earthquakes and look at a holistic picture," Jones said.

She noted that the Los Angeles area has been proactive about preparing to respond to a major disaster, but "it can always be improved." She also said a major part of the area's ability to respond and recover from a disaster is the sense of community, and the ability of residents to assist others. She said while Los Angeles is generally seen as a place where people don't connect with their neighbors, the response to the January 2025 wildfires showed that communities can remain strong and resilient in the face of disaster.

"I live in Pasadena," she said. "I was one mile from the evacuation zone. Dozens of friends evacuated or losing their homes. We've come back. We're coming back. We've kept together as a community more than I thought we would, and it's inspired me to both feel better about our prospects, but also inspired me to try and do more to bring us together.

"And that's where I think the really big solution is going to come is the degree to which we don't depend just on ourselves or even just on the county, but we figure out how to be partners so that we respond most effectively."

Kevin McGowan, director of the county Office of Emergency Management, said the county's work with experts like Jones and agencies such as the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Seismic Safety Commission has the county well-positioned.

"The county, we have a solid foundation to build on," he said. "We've updated our federal and state-approved plans that give us frameworks for what we do when things like big disasters occur. Our departments maintain continuity of operations plans. We test our community systems. And we have tested capabilities, kind of like down to the movement of personnel such as a helicopter transportation program. Our emergency operations center and 24-hour watch center provide structure to monitor incidents, coordinate with our department operation centers, work with local and federal partners."

He acknowledged, however, that as prepared as the county may be, "a major earthquake would test all of those capabilities at a scale that we have not experienced."

He also noted that the county will not have enough first-responders to form a comprehensive, rapid, countywide response. He said that leads to the need for residents to "prepare at the family level and the community level."

McGowan said he recognizes that the threat of a major earthquake can seem "insurmountable" to many people, leading them to "kind of throw in the towel." But he said residents can take simple steps to improve overall response — having an earthquake kit in their car or developing an evacuation and reunification plan with family.

"It's small, little incremental investments like that can help," he said.

The presentation stemmed from a motion authored by Barger in August that noted Los Angeles County has not experienced a large-scale, damaging earthquake since the magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake in 1994.

The motion cited a media report indicating that tectonic strain has accumulated on segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults near the Cajon Pass, with current stress levels surpassing those calculated before significant historical earthquakes on both faults.

"These findings are not a prediction that a major earthquake is imminent," according to Barger's motion. "However, the finding that these fault systems are now more heavily loaded than at any point in the historical record warrants serious attention. The County has an obligation to ensure its residents, infrastructure and emergency systems are prepared for a disaster of this scale before it occurs."

The motion also cited a 2008 U.S. Geological Survey scenario that modeled a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault.

Barger said Tuesday that a magnitude-3.6 quake Sunday morning in Hermosa Beach served as a good reminder to people about the need to be ready.

"We've also witnessed the devastating impacts earthquakes can have globally," Barger said. "Most recently, in Venezuela and Colombia, our county agencies activated and deployed urban search-and-rescue teams to both countries in response. These deployments provide an important window into what post- earthquake conditions can look like, and the level of readiness that is required."

Barger's motion also directed county officials to develop an emergency earthquake readiness public awareness program, including an online "Know Your Risk" portal and a multilingual education campaign surrounding the Great ShakeOut on Oct. 15.

The motion called for "sustained, year-round public engagement strategies that move beyond annual preparedness events and establish earthquake readiness as an ongoing public safety priority for Los Angeles County."

A mobile earthquake simulator known as the Big Shaker was stationed at Grand Park next to the county Hall of Administration Tuesday morning, giving people a chance to experience what a major quake might feel like.

City News Service