Forecasters Continue To Lower Hurricane Season Predictions As Peak Season Nears

As the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season approaches its climatological peak, forecasters are continuing to dial back their expectations for how active it will be, though that doesn't mean Florida residents can let their guard down.

This week, AccuWeather lowered its forecast for the number of named storms expected to form this season.

The agency’s meteorologists cited increasing confidence that a potentially record-strong El Niño will increase the likelihood of disruptive wind shear in the Atlantic basin, which is could suppress tropical activity.

"That gives us greater confidence in lowering the total number of named storms, but it does not eliminate the risk of a damaging hurricane strike in the United States," AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. "It only takes one storm to define a hurricane season."

The AccuWeather team now expects eight to 11 named storms, three to four hurricanes and one to two major hurricanes this year.

Its original March forecast called for 11 to 16 named storms. The private forecasting service continues to expect three to five storms to have a direct impact on the United States.

The agency’s revised outlook comes less than two weeks after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also lowered its seasonal forecast.

NOAA reduced its forecast to seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes, Patch previously reported. The agency also increased the probability of a below-normal season from 55 percent in its May outlook to 75 percent.

Both forecasts point to El Niño as a major reason for the expected slowdown.

The climate pattern develops in the Pacific but can influence weather patterns around the globe. In the Atlantic, El Niño typically increases vertical wind shear, making it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen.

So far, the Atlantic has been unusually quiet. AccuWeather reported that three tropical storms — Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal — had formed as of Aug. 19, with activity running behind several historical benchmarks.

Still, a quiet season isn't necessarily a safe season, the experts cautioned.

AccuWeather continues to identify the northern and eastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas as areas with a higher-than-historical-average risk of direct impacts. The agency also notes that exceptionally warm waters near the U.S. coastline could provide fuel for storms that develop close to land, potentially allowing them to strengthen quickly.

As of Friday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map shows two areas of interest in the Atlantic basin, but neither is near Florida or the U.S. coast. The systems are also generally tracking northward or away from the U.S.

Both areas of low-pressure — one several hundred miles north-northeast of the Azores and the other a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda — have low chances of strengthening, the NHC said. Each area only has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next week.

Though the Atlantic basin is quiet now, things could change quickly as the season moves into its most active period.

The climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season occurs around Sept. 10, and tropical systems can develop well into the fall. AccuWeather forecasters noted that some of the most destructive recent hurricanes, including Helene in 2024 and Milton in 2024, struck after the traditional peak.

And a lower seasonal forecast isn’t a guarantee of a quiet hurricane season for any particular community, and the number of storms doesn’t determine how destructive a season might be, forecasters said. Seasonal outlooks only predict overall activity, and can’t determine where a storm might form or go.

“The 1992 Atlantic hurricane season is one of the most dramatic examples,” DaSilva said. “Only seven named storms developed, but Hurricane Andrew became a Category 5 hurricane and devastated South Florida.”

See Also:

• NOAA Lowers 2026 Hurricane Forecast As Peak Season Nears
• 5 Things To Know About The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• Company Offers Hurricane Air Evacuation Membership For FL Residents
• 'Super El Niño' Could Form In Atlantic: What It Means For FL Hurricane Season
• 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Names: What Storms Will Be Called This Season
• NOAA Releases 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Predictions As El Niño Returns