Hurricane Season Forecast Focuses On Threats To FL

SARASOTA, FL — A new forecast from a Sarasota-based climate group predicts 12 named storms for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

The Climate Adaptation Center’s forecast also calls for five hurricanes, two of them major storms, this season.

The forecast, developed by hurricane and climate expert Bob Bunting, was built specifically for Tampa Bay and the Suncoast region, rather than as a broad national outlook, the CAC said.

The focus is meant to highlight local vulnerabilities, including storm surge, coastal flooding and rapid intensification near the Gulf Coast, the organization said.

“This isn’t just about how many storms form,” Bunting said. “It’s about how storms are evolving, how they intensify, how they produce storm surge and how they can impact our region even without a direct hit. That’s the part people need to understand.”

Find the full outlook here.

The Climate Adaptation Center said recent seasons have shown that storms do not need to make landfall to create significant impacts across the region.

Though a below-average season is predicted, “it doesn’t take a direct hit for the Suncoast to experience extreme impact,” the CAC said.

“Idalia and Helene were far off the coast but did millions to billions in damage,” the organization said. “That is driven by the fact hurricanes are bigger, slower-moving and come on top of 7 inches of sea level rise since 2000 right here on the Suncoast.”

The CAC added, “Also, wind shear ebbs and flows no matter what is happening with El Nino. Should a weak period of shear happen, and a storm moves into the Gulf over the deep warm water, rapid Intensification can and most likely, will occur. This is something we will watch very closely.”

The 2026 forecast is part of the center’s mission to provide science-based, locally relevant climate intelligence, according to the organization. The goal is to help communities better prepare for changing conditions ahead of hurricane season.

Unlike wider forecasts that cover larger areas, the CAC’s outlook is aimed at residents and communities along Tampa Bay and the Suncoast. This local focus can give people more specific information about what risks to watch in this part of Florida.

“Our region faces unique risks,” Bunting said. “Having a forecast built here, for here, gives people a clearer picture of what to watch and how to prepare.”

With hurricane season just over a month away, the organization offered the following tips for residents:

• Create an emergency plan.
• Build a hurricane kit.
• Secure homes.
• Review insurance policies.
• Prepare for power outages.
• Know evacuation routes and shelters.
• Protect important documents.
• Prepare vehicles.

See Also:

• 2026 Hurricane Forecast: Up To 4 Major Storms Expected In Atlantic
• 61 FL Counties Named Drought Disaster Areas As Wildfires Grow
• 134 Wildfires Burning Across FL As Drought Continues
• Nearly 80% Of FL Experiencing 'Extreme' Drought Conditions
• Water Restrictions Tighten Across Central FL As Extreme Drought Continues
• Severe Drought Dries Up Tampa Bay's Main Water Supply