Tropical Development Off FL Coast: See Latest Forecast, Impacts

Though it’s been a slow start to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters are now watching two areas for possible tropical development — one hanging out across northern Florida and the other a disorganized tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic.

An area of low pressure has formed across the northeastern Gulf, offshore northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Some gradual development of the system is expected as it moves slowly northeast over the Gulf and along the Southeast coast into early next week.

It has a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm, NHC said.

The next named storm for this season is Bertha. The first system of the season, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed June 17 off the Texan coast.

• Also Read: 5 Things To Know About The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Many experts don’t expect more than rainy weather from the system, though.

“Let's be VERY clear here. IF this low develops, it's a rainmaker...nothing more. (Even if it somehow gets a name,)” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote in a social media post. “Some areas could see some really solid rainfall totals by next Tuesday. Point is, I wouldn't cancel weekend plans. Wait until we actually see the low develop, and go from there.”

As the system moves, Phillips expects the chances of rain will be higher along the coast.

Meteorologist Noah Bergren with Fox 35 agreed that the system isn’t much of a threat, writing in a social media post, “ Chances we see ‘Bertha’ form in the Gulf are pretty low this weekend. Chances are high that we see lots of rain banding, storms, and a couple of severe storms/tornado warnings Friday-Monday.”

Some areas could see flash flooding, especially in the greater Tampa Bay area, Bergren added. “Wouldn’t be a shock to me if somewhere got 6-7"+ of rain during this spell in the Tampa area.”

Bergren also expected some damaging winds or brief tornados along the Interstate 4 corridor.

“There will be more wind energy in the atmosphere to support an actual tornado risk, more than the ‘run of the mill’ rainy season afternoon. Thanks to that low pressure system spinning in the Gulf,” he wrote. “Lots of storms and downpours across the Orlando area as well. But also notice, none of these days are ‘washouts’ and raining the entire day. Just a high coverage of action daily.”

Because the system is directly offshore, it has little time to strengthen over water.

“The biggest hindrance to development will be its expected short period of time over water which won’t give it much time to consolidate,” Fox 13’s pal Dellegatto wrote in a social media post. “That being said, we pay special attention to any areas of low pressure that are expected to develop near us this time of year. NHC pegs the area at a 20 [percent] chance for development. More than likely, the net result will be an increase in rainfall over the northern half of Florida this weekend and early next week."

A second system thousands of miles away in the eastern Atlantic is also being watched, NHC forecasters said.

This tropical wave is bringing disorganized showers and thunderstorms southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, the agency said.

Some slow development is possible during the next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

The system is expected to move into a less conducive environment by the weekend and further development isn’t expected, the NHC said. There’s a 10 percent chance that it could strengthen into a tropical depression or storm over the next week.

See Also:

• Hurricane Season Forecast Focuses On Threats To FL
• Developing El Niño Could Reach Historic Strength
• 2026 Hurricane Forecast: Up To 4 Major Storms Expected In Atlantic
• 'Super El Niño' Could Form In Atlantic: What It Means For FL Hurricane Season
• 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Names: What Storms Will Be Called This Season
• NOAA Releases 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Predictions As El Niño Returns