NOAA Releases 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Predictions As El Niño Returns

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, according to a news release.

The agency’s outlook gives the season a 55 percent chance of being below normal, a 35 percent chance of being near normal and a 10 percent chance of being above normal.

The NOAA is forecasting eight to 14 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher.

Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including one to three major hurricanes that are Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher, the agency said.

An average Atlantic season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The 2026 Atlantic season is expected to be below normal because of competing weather factors.

El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average, the agency said.

NOAA said El Niño conditions tend to support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold. That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said, adding, “Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm.”

Ahead of the season, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are rolling out several new and updated tools.

They include an improved tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic that will include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas in the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

NOAA said the 2026 Atlantic seasonal outlook will be updated in early August, ahead of the historical peak of the season, which typically extends from mid-September through October.

See Also:

• Hurricane Season Forecast Focuses On Threats To FL
• Developing El Niño Could Reach Historic Strength
• 2026 Hurricane Forecast: Up To 4 Major Storms Expected In Atlantic
• 'Super El Niño' Could Form In Atlantic: What It Means For FL Hurricane Season
• 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Names: What Storms Will Be Called This Season