Johnson Closes Gap With Vallas, Within Margin Of Error In Latest Poll

CHICAGO — With less than two weeks to go before the April 4 runoff election to determine the next mayor of Chicago, new polling shows former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson separated by less than the margin of error.

Vallas still leads by 46.3 percent to 44.2 percent in the latest Victory Research poll. Two weeks earlier, the same poll showed Vallas leading by nearly 6 percentage points.

The poll shows voters have been making up their minds about the candidates as the race heads into the home stretch. The number of respondents who said they remained undecided fell from 16 percent to 9.6 percent.

In addition to undecided voters, nearly one in six respondents said they could still change their minds.

Hispanic voters and North Side residents along the lakefront are the two groups who remain most "in play," according to Victory Research pollster Rod McCulloch.

Although Vallas holds a narrow lead over Johnson among both demographics — 2.6 percent in lakefront wards and 5.1 percent among Latinos — he has been unable to secure 50 percent among either group, the poll shows.

Two weeks ago, the poll showed Vallas held a nearly 4-point lead among women voters. Now, Johnson leads among women by a 45.3 percent to 43.5 percent margin. Men favor Vallas by more than 6.5 points.

There are also stark racial and geographic divides in the poll.

White voters favor Vallas by a margin of 71.7 percent to 21.9 percent, while Black voters favor Johnson by a 73.6 percent to 16.1 percent margin.

And Johnson holds a commanding lead on the South Side and West Side. But Vallas has large, but smaller leads on the Northwest Side and Southwest Side.

The poll of 806 likely Chicago voters was conducted from March 20 to March 23. It has a margin of error of 3.45 percent, and it was conducted by live callers, reaching more than two thirds of respondents on cell phones and the rest on landlines.

Both mayoral candidates have continued to roll out new endorsements this week.

Vallas has been endorsed by former opponents Ja'Mal Green and Willie Wilson, former Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White, former U.S. Education Secretary Arne Duncan, former Gov. Pat Quinn and former U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush.

Johnson has been endorsed by former opponents Jesus "Chuy" Garcia and State Rep. Kam Buckner, Rev. Jesse Jackson, U.S. Reps. James Clyburn, Jan Schakowsky, Jonathan Jackson, Danny Davis and Delia Ramirez, former Cook County Clerk David Orr and U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, with whom Johnson was set to hold a rally next week at the UIC Forum.

Earlier: Poll Shows Paul Vallas Leading Brandon Johnson In Chicago Mayor's Race