Developing El Niño Could Reach Historic Strength: What It Means For MD

MARYLAND — Scientists are warning that conditions in the Pacific Ocean could lead to a powerful El Niño weather pattern that is developing earlier than expected, potentially bringing conditions in Maryland that will continue into winter.

In a forecast discussion Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center estimated an 82 percent chance that El Niño conditions will develop as soon as this month and a 96 percent chance they will persist into February 2027.

NOAA’s latest May through July outlook for Maryland indicates residents have a 40 to 50 percent chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures these next few months, which may not be a surprise to many Marylanders as the region will see a warming trend starting this weekend.

Temperatures are expected to skyrocket into the 80s on Saturday, then rise as high as the mid-90s by Tuesday.

In line with past forecasts predicting a hot and stormy next few months, NOAA says the majority of the Old Line State will see about a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal rain totals.

A historically strong “super El Niño” can disrupt weather patterns worldwide, often bringing heavier rains and flooding to some regions while worsening drought and heat in others. Meteorologists say a major event in 2026 could contribute to record global temperatures, alter hurricane activity, fuel wildfires, and strain food and water supplies in vulnerable areas.

NOAA said it is still too early to know whether it will reach “super El Niño” strength. Spring forecasts are notoriously uncertain because ocean and atmospheric conditions can change rapidly.

Thursday’s forecast discussion contrasts with a February outlook in which NOAA said a weakening La Niña in the tropical Pacific was expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by spring, likely lasting through the summer.

AccuWeather, The Weather Channel and the Old Farmer’s Almanac also said in their February outlooks that a weakening La Niña pattern would transition to neutral conditions in the spring, but did not forecast a developing El Niño.

More recent forecasts, including one last month from the private weather company AccuWeather, said a strong El Niño was expected to make it a hot and humid summer in Maryland.

Officials had forecast that severe weather was likely to impact the region by July, adding that temperatures were anticipated to be up to 2 degrees warmer than overall averages.

Related: El Niño Summer Forecast: How Hot And Stormy Will It Be In MD?

Parts of the state, according to the earlier forecast, were also at a moderate risk for a derecho.

AccuWeather meteorologists said the Northeast and mid-Atlantic can expect a warmer summer with intense heat and potential localized flooding from thunderstorms. The South and Southeast may see frequent storms and above-average rain, while the Midwest and Ohio Valley face heat and severe, damaging storms. Hot, dry conditions in the West, particularly the Southwest, increase drought and wildfire risks.