MPCA Predicts How Many Smoky Days Minnesota Could See This Summer

MINNESOTA — Minnesota could see 12 to 16 days of wildfire smoke impacts this summer, according to a new outlook from state air quality officials.

That would be an active season for poor air quality alerts, according to meteorologists with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency. The agency said conditions are expected to be similar to 2024, when wildfire smoke and ozone repeatedly affected air quality across the state.

Much of Minnesota’s wildfire smoke problem starts north of the border. Smoke from Canadian wildfires can travel thousands of miles before cold fronts pull it down into Minnesota, creating hazy skies and unhealthy air.

Warmer temperatures and persistent drought conditions have made wildfires larger and more frequent during the summer months in the United States and Canada, in part because of climate change, the MPCA said.

"Minnesotans rely on timely, accurate, science-based forecasts to plan their days and protect their health," MPCA Meteorologist Matt Taraldsen said. "We want to give people the information they need to make smart choices — whether it’s rescheduling a run, protecting a child with asthma, or delaying the backyard chores. This summer, conditions are lining up for several air quality alert days, so staying ‘air-aware’ is more important than ever."

Wildfire smoke can contain fine particles that pose health risks, even for healthy people. Those particles can affect the lungs and heart, officials said.

The MPCA said certain groups face higher risks when air quality gets worse, including:

• Older adults
• Children under 18
• Pregnant people
• People with heart or lung conditions
• Outdoor workers
• People who exercise outdoors

The agency is also watching ozone, another summer air quality concern.

MPCA forecasters expect four to six days this summer when ozone levels may be unhealthy for sensitive groups. That is slightly above Minnesota’s historical average, according to the agency.

The highest ozone risk areas include the Twin Cities suburbs and parts of southeastern Minnesota near Rochester.

Drought and below-average rainfall can lead to more sunny days, creating favorable conditions for ozone to form, officials said.

When air quality is unhealthy, the MPCA recommends that Minnesotans:

• Stay indoors with windows and doors closed
• Filter indoor air when possible
• Limit outdoor activity, especially exercise
• Have a backup indoor location or alternate date for outdoor events
• Watch children, older adults, people with heart or lung conditions and pets for signs of health impacts

Minnesotans can sign up for air quality alerts and check daily forecasts on the MPCA AQI forecast webpage.