Ayotte, Pappas Both Hold Their Leads In Latest St. A's Poll

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

New Hampshire’s political schizophrenia remains untreated as voters appear ready to give Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte a solid win while sending an all-Democrat delegation to Washington, D.C., yet again.

That’s the finding of the new St. Anselm College Survey Center poll released Thursday, which shows Ayotte and Democrat Senate candidate U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas in nearly identical positions. Ayotte leads Democrat Cinde Warmington 50-42 percent, while Pappas is ahead of Republican John Sununu 50 to 43 percent.

Ayotte’s margin is similar to the nine-point lead she holds in the RealClearPolling average. It’s also another example of a Granite State GOP governor outperforming the party’s overall standing in the state, a trend since 2016.

To win the U.S. Senate race, Sununu would need to do the same, says Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics.

“The Senate ballot closely mirrors the generic ballot, with Democrats leading 50-43%,” Levesque noted. “For Sununu to narrow the gap, he would need to perform better than the Republican baseline reflected in the generic ballot.”

The one federal race that remains close is in the First Congressional District, where Democrat Stephany Shaheen holds a narrow four-point edge over Republican Anthony DiLorenzo, 46 to 42 percent. Shaheen, the daughter of longtime U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, narrowly won her party’s primary and is struggling to put the general election away, despite the advantage of a pro-Democrat climate and prominent family name.

As expected, incumbent Rep. Maggie Goodlander holds a significant lead over Republican Lily Tang Williams, 54 to 38 percent. Republicans haven’t carried NH-02 since 2010.

Aside from Ayotte, Republicans’ only other good news is broad support for their property tax cap proposal, which will also be on the ballot. Overall, voters support it 57-32 percent, with 83 percent of Republicans on board. More significantly, the tax cap is +25 with undeclared voters (56-31 percent), and even a third of Democrats approve (31-57 percent).

“Granite Staters are getting crushed by out-of-control property tax bills, and this 57-32 percent margin shows it,” said state Rep. Joe Sweeney, R-Salem. “This November, your property tax is on your ballot. Republicans gave voters a property tax cap, and I’m voting yes. Democrats would repeal it the first chance they get, even if your town adopts it. If you want relief, vote yes on the Property Tax Cap and vote Republican up and down the ballot.”

Voters can expect to hear that message often from Republican House and Senate candidates between now and Election Day, Republicans tell NHJournal.

The St. Anselm College Survey Center also asked voters about the 2028 First in the Nation presidential primary. The big news: Vice President JD Vance, who’s all but the nominee presumptive, is tied with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 38 percent. No other candidates are in double digits.

Democrats, meanwhile, have a clear frontrunner in former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 28 percent support, double that of the next closest contender, Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga, at 14 percent. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., is at 11 percent, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is at 10 percent.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris may have a double-digit lead nationally, but only five percent of Granite Staters give her a thumbs up.

Levesque summed up the poll’s findings.

“The upcoming election is taking shape in a political environment where inflation and affordability remain central concerns, presenting challenges for the party in power. Public views of many candidates for top offices are mixed, while Democratic voters appear somewhat more energized, in part reflecting their views of President Donald Trump and his administration. These dynamics, alongside ongoing economic concerns, are likely to shape the electoral landscape.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.