‘Super’ El Niño Is Official; NYC Winter Could Be One For The Record Books

NEW YORK CITY— The much-talked-about El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean has officially reached “super” strength, and forecasters said Thursday that it could deliver winter weather for the record books to New York City.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center put the chances of that happening at around 60 percent for the overlapping October-December and November-January periods.

The probability of a strong to very strong El Niño remains above 79 percent through January-March 2027.

Forecasters with AccuWeather, a private weather company, said the El Niño could rival or surpass the strongest events recorded since 1950. The climate pattern has reached “super status” only six times in 75 times

New Yorkers could see fewer snowy days as above-average temperatures make it harder for storms to deliver snow instead of rain or a wintry mix, according to AccuWeather’s latest winter outlook,

AccuWeather forecasts below-average snow, but says East Coast cities could still get a consequential storm, particularly in late January or February.

The winter effects of the climate pattern appear to be settling in one to two months early, El Niño expert Eric Webb told The Weather Company.

This Week's Forecast In New York City

New Yorkers should prepare for heavy rain, gusty winds and possible thunderstorms Thursday and Friday before drier weather arrives for the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.

• Thursday, Nov. 12: Showers and possible thunderstorms, with a high near 62 degrees. Heavy rain andgusty winds are expected.
• Friday, Nov. 13: Rain, mainly before 4 p.m., with temperatures reaching about 47 degrees.
• Saturday, Nov. 14: Partly sunny, with a high near 48 degrees.
• Sunday, Nov. 15: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50 degrees.

Sunday is expected to offer the best weather for outdoor activities, following a wet and unsettled end to the work week.

Albuquerque, New Mexico; Flagstaff, Arizona; and West Palm Beach, Florida, had their wettest fall to date through Nov. 4, while Chicago, Dallas, Houston and Nashville were among dozens of central U.S. cities having their warmest.

AccuWeather forecasts 10 to 20 inches of snow for the City this winter, compared with 43.4 inches last season.

New York City could see a wetter-than-average winter, with more coastal storms bringing heavy rain and localized flooding.

The forecast does not mean winter will feel mild every day. Arctic air outbreaks could still bring freezing temperatures, icy sidewalks and hazardous commutes.

A Winter Weather Driver

El Niño involves unusually warm water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and accompanying changes in atmospheric circulation. NOAA said the ocean and atmosphere both showed the pattern continuing to strengthen in October.

Federal forecasters expect strengthening to continue before El Niño begins weakening in early 2027. A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of a wetter winter across the southern United States and a milder winter across much of the North, but NOAA cautioned those outcomes aren’t guaranteed.

Regional Winter Outlooks

Northeast and New England: Much of the Northeast could have a milder winter with fewer Arctic outbreaks. AccuWeather forecasts below-average snow but says East Coast cities could still get a consequential storm, particularly in late January or February.

Mid-Atlantic: Below-average snowfall would still leave room for a major East Coast storm later in winter.

Midwest and Great Lakes: Warmer conditions and fewer Arctic intrusions could reduce heating needs.

Northern Plains: A milder winter is favored as El Niño limits Arctic outbreaks.

Southern Plains and Texas: An active southern storm track favors wetter conditions toward the Gulf Coast.

Southeast and Florida: Wetter weather is favored along the Gulf Coast. Florida faces an elevated risk of severe storms and tornadoes.

California and West Coast: Additional atmospheric rivers could bring flooding, landslides and substantial mountain snow.

Pacific Northwest: AccuWeather’s December-February map favors drier conditions across Washington, Oregon and parts of Idaho, with the stronger Pacific storm track directed farther south.

Southwest and interior West: Wetter conditions are favored across California, the Southwest and into the southern Plains. The map places the northern Rockies closer to the warmer northern tier.