Moody Leads Nixon By 8 Points, Vindman By 10, In New Poll Of Florida Senate Race

By Mitch Perry, Florida Phoenix

July 20, 2026

A new poll of likely midterm election voters in Florida shows Republicans maintaining steady leads in the marquee gubernatorial and Senate races on the ballot in November.

The survey of 848 likely Florida midterm voters conducted earlier this month by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows Southwest GOP U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds with a 5-point lead over Democrat David Jolly in the race for Florida governor, 46%-41%.

In the contest for U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent Ashley Moody leads both Democrats running in the Aug. 18 primary to face her in November, but the survey shows Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon is closer than retired Army lieutenant colonel in prospective one-on-one-matchups.

The poll shows Moody up over Nixon, 50%-42%. Moody leads Vindman, 50%-40%.

That survey comes despite the fact that Vindman is crushing Nixon in fundraising.

Vindman has reported raising $16.7 million. Nixon has reported raising a little more than $625,000, with approximately $118,000 cash on hand at the end of June.

“These races are notably closer than we’ve seen in recent election cycles, somewhat unsurprising given that the party that controls the presidency usually struggles in midterm elections,” said PORL’s faculty director, Sean Freeder.

“Despite very different ideological approaches, the two Democratic Senate candidates do about as well as one another, suggesting the party’s internal debate over whether to move left or stay centrist may not much affect the behavior of voters, or at least that they aren’t paying attention yet.”

The survey also polled voters on Amendment 3, which would begin to phase out property taxes on non-school homestead properties.

When informed it would require local governments to use property taxes only for core public services, the measure gets 61% support and 32% opposition — enough to get it over the 60% margin required for passage.

However, in a follow-up question, “respondents were told that estimates suggest passage of the amendment would lead to a municipal budget shortfall of about $11.8 billion over two years.” Given that information, support for the amendment dropped by 16 percentage points to 45%, with 47% opposing.

State economists have estimated local governments would see budget shortfalls of $11.8 billion if the amendment is approved, but that would take place after five years, not two.

The poll was conducted between July 8-17 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. It was made up of 46% Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 21% listed as NPA or “other.”

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