National Weather Service Offers Pittsburgh, Western PA Winter Preview

PITTSBURGH, PA — A super El Nino is forecast for this upcoming winter, and that could be good news for Pittsburgh and Western Pennsylvania.

That's according to the National Weather Service, which has released its winter outlook for Southwestern Pennsylvania, Eastern Ohio and Northern West Virginia.

El Niño means above-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean that influences shifts in worldwide weather patterns. The weather service says this El Nino likely will peak in intensity in December, but its impact will be felt through the winter through the lower 48 states.

What does that mean for Western Pennsylvania?

According to the weather service, a northern displacement of the polar jet will make it easier for warmer air from the equator to move north through the winter. While that doesn't mean below-average temperatures won't occur, the frequency, duration and intensity of cold snaps should be less severe.

Weather service forecasters say that with above average temperatures likely occurring more frequently than cold temperatures, the probability of river ice buildup should be lessened.

Regionally, storm tracks are favored more to the south of Pittsburgh. A large winter storm or two can't be ruled out but projections are that they will occur south of Interstate 70.

But keep that shovel or snowblower handy. The weather service is cautioning that with the predicted temperatures this winter, there might be more Great Lakes enhanced snow than usual. Still, overall snowfall is expected to be below normal for most of the region during the coming months.