Surging Jet Fuel Prices May Ground Some Summer Vacations: What To Know

Americans are beginning to adjust their international travel plans as the conflict with Iran squeezes global oil supplies, sharply driving up fares, causing massive flight disruptions and ramping up safety concerns.

The global price of jet fuel has doubled since the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began in late February, with the price of a barrel of oil spiraling from $99 to $209 at the start of April. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted a quarter of the global energy supply, and aviation has taken the greatest hit. The head of the International Energy Agency warned last week that European countries could run short on jet fuel within weeks.

Fares that are as much as 25 percent higher in some cases, fuel surcharges and increased checked baggage fees could persist for months, even if current peace talks end the conflict.

“It’s very hard for the airlines to make predictions in this environment, so they’re going to be conservative, and that’s why it’s likely that their prices will remain elevated for some time until things really stabilize,” Shye Gilad, a former airline captain who now teaches at Georgetown University’s business school, told The Associated Press.

Below are some things air travelers need to know.

Expect Cancellations

Travelers may encounter more cancellations of unprofitable flights. Lufthansa recently announced it is cutting 20,000 summer flights to save fuel. Cancelled flights can be rebooked at no cost, the airline said, but flight options may be less convenient.

Air Canada is halting service to New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport between June 1 and Oct. 25. Meanwhile, other international carriers — including U.S. airlines like United and Delta, as well as Air France-KLM, SAS, Philippine Airlines, and Cathay Pacific from Europe and Asia — have cut routes and either raised ticket prices or announced forthcoming increases should the oil disruption continue.

Look For Hidden Charges

Travelers who locked in flights before the Strait of Hormuz closed could still face increased costs.

Some budget airlines have introduced “adaptable pricing” that allows them to add a fuel surcharge based on market prices a week ahead of departure. Also, travelers who booked their flights using rewards points may also pay for a fuel surcharge.

Act Quickly

Travel experts say that for now, longstanding booking guidance offers a baseline for how early to reserve a flight to get the lowest airfare: International flights are typically the cheapest about two to five months in advance, and domestic trips about three to six weeks out.

While consumers may be tempted to see if the war ends before buying airline tickets, the “wait-and-see” approach to booking flights is riskier this year, travel experts say, especially the longer the war goes on and the closer to summer and other peak travel periods it gets.

“Presuming there is a lasting ceasefire — or better yet, peace agreement — it will take a few months for normal levels of jet fuel production and delivery to resume,” airline industry analyst Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, told The AP.

The likelihood of a steady flow of oil from the Persian Gulf — and the subsequent relief from price strain for airlines and their customers — remains highly uncertain.

“My advice to travelers is this: If you find a flight whose schedule fits yours, with a fare you can afford, and on an airline you can at least tolerate, book it,” Harteveldt said. “But — and I cannot emphasize this enough —do not book a Basic Economy fare,” the cheapest but also the most restrictive airline ticket class.

Avoid Basic Economy Tickets

Along with charging for checked bags and seat selection, most North American airlines do not give refunds or travel credits to passengers with Basic Economy tickets if they don't cancel their trips within 24 hours of purchase. Policies may vary, but spending more for a Standard Economy ticket provides more flexibility, according to Harteveldt.

Paying more up-front for a refundable ticket also proves advantageous because “if the prices start to dramatically change, you can cancel and rebook for the better price,” Gilad said.

Last-minute bookings and other situations that typically command higher prices are likely to keep climbing, Gilad said.

“Remember, especially if you’re traveling on the major airlines, they’re going to have more ability to adjust fares. If you book too close to your travel date, you’re going to pay more," he said. "The farther out you can book, the better.”

Be Flexible

Travelers who don’t want or need to reach a specific place at a specific time can find it easier to save on airfare. Shifting departure or return dates by a day or two — especially from peak weekends and holidays to midweek — often yields big price differences.

Choosing a different destination also may pay off. A flight from the United States may be significantly cheaper to one European city than another. Given that budget airlines and trains widely connect Europe, choosing an airport that offers lower costs can still facilitate convenient travel to numerous destinations via train connections.

Consumers not set on a certain arrival destination can try tools like Skyscanner’s “Explore Everywhere” feature to look for less-expensive options.

Looking beyond the closest airport for departures also can make a meaningful difference. Major hubs tend to offer more flights and lower fares than smaller regional airports.

In some cases, booking a separate short flight or train to a hub will unlock a cheaper long-haul airfare — think Milwaukee versus Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport.

Travel Light

Sticking to a carry-on bag, when possible, can help avoid the higher fees for checking luggage that many major U.S. airlines introduced recently, including Delta, American, United, Southwest and JetBlue.

If packing light is not an option, plan ahead because airlines typically charge more to add bags closer to departure, especially within 24 hours of a flight.

Redeem Your Points

While fares are going up, the number of airline points needed for many flights has not increased at the same pace, said Adam Morvitz, CEO of points.me, a loyalty rewards redemption search platform.

Airlines still need to fill seats, Morvitz said, and offering more of them for fewer points is one way to do it.

Customers without enough frequent-flyer miles or credit card points for a round-trip ticket still can redeem their travel rewards for one leg of a journey and free up cash for other travel expenses.

Many travelers redeem points directly through their credit card’s booking portal, where they’re typically worth about 1 cent each, Morvitz said. Transferring points to airline loyalty programs often unlocks significantly better value because most major credit card issuers partner with a range of airlines.

One example is American Express, whose points can be transferred to Air France’s Flying Blue program. Travelers who don’t want to book with Air France still can use those points with the airline’s partner carriers, such as Delta, Morvitz said.

“Points are a form of wealth, and consumers should recognize that those points increase spending power,” he said.

Explore Travel Credit Cards

For those new to travel credit cards, sign-up bonuses may yield benefits that can be put to use as soon as this summer. Some bonuses are large enough to cover a flight after meeting a minimum spending requirement.

“Even if you were to travel the entire year, taking one trip per month, you would still earn more points simply by signing up for the card than actually sitting on a seat and flying,” Morvitz said.

Points and rewards can add up through everyday spending on groceries, dining and gas. Some cards include perks like free or discounted checked bags.

Vacation Closer To Home

The demand for domestic travel is surging as Americans become increasingly nervous about traveling far from home in a fraught geopolitical landscape.

Data from the online search engine JustFly shows a sharp shift toward domestic travel, with searches up 161 percent year-over-year, far outpacing international growth, which is up 15 percent, according to TravelPulse.

At the same time, the domestic share jumped 19.5 percentage points, while the international share dropped 14.5 percentage points, according to JustFly.

“We started to see a meaningful shift toward domestic travel in early March, right after geopolitical tensions began disrupting international flight networks. What’s notable is how quickly traveler behavior adapted, within days, not weeks,” JustFly spokesperson Ayoub Hissar told TravelPulse.

What’s Happening With Spirit?

Spiraling fuel costs are further jeopardizing the survival of discount carrier Spirit Airlines, which is facing new challenges as it recovers from its second bankruptcy. The Florida-based airline could liquidate, Bloomberg first reported.

The Trump administration intervened and is in advanced talks for a $500 million bailout that could give the government an equity stake in the carrier, CNBC reported.

“Spirit’s in trouble, and I’d love somebody to buy Spirit,” President Donald Trump said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Tuesday. “It’s 14,000 jobs, and maybe the federal government should help that one out.”

The Associated Press contributed reporting.